When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out
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When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out. / Damsbo-Svendsen, Søren; Hansen, Kasper M.
I: Electoral Studies, Bind 81, 102573, 2023.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - When the election rains out and how bad weather excludes marginal voters from turning out
AU - Damsbo-Svendsen, Søren
AU - Hansen, Kasper M.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.
AB - Ostensibly random and trivial experiences of everyday life, e.g., local weather, can have significant political consequences. First, we present a comprehensive meta-analysis of 34 studies of electoral turnout and rainfall – the vast majority demonstrating a negative association. Secondly, we present a new analysis of a voter panel with validated turnout for a complete electorate merged with fine-grained meteorological observations to show that Election Day rainfall reduces turnout by 0.95 percentage points per centimeter, while more sunshine increases turnout. Marginal voters (young voters) are up to six times more susceptible to bad weather and respond more positively to pleasant weather. Thus, bad weather exacerbates unequal democratic participation by pushing low-propensity voters to abstain. Efforts to include marginal voters therefore ought to be intensified during poor weather, and elections could even be moved to seasons with more pleasant weather to improve participatory equality.
KW - Climate
KW - Cost of voting
KW - Electoral turnout
KW - Individual-level voter panel
KW - Local weather
KW - Marginal voter
KW - Participation
U2 - 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102573
DO - 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102573
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85145334944
VL - 81
JO - Electoral Studies
JF - Electoral Studies
SN - 0261-3794
M1 - 102573
ER -
ID: 338943687